Future election predictions Sam Says

Author: Sam Wilson

Well, this is the last Sam Says. I know I had a fun time writing this column and I hope you had a nice time either reading it or skipping over it to find articles with more flavor.

As a closing I am going to leave you with a few predictions about the national political landscape for next couple of years and a quick list of stuff I think is worth reading.

The Democrats will pick up seats in the House in 2006 but will not be able to take control until at least 2012. Reason? 2006 will be Bush's sixth year in office. The president's party almost always does very poorly in such years. 1998 was an exception - see Lewinsky. But, the Democrats have no real chance of regaining power until 2012 because the huge majority of House Districts are drawn to ensure the incumbent wins, so only a handful of the 435 seats are ever really in contention.

The Democrats will win back the Senate in 2006. Reason? Harry Reid is quite simply a better tactician than Bill Frist. He has succeeded in making the Senate GOP look both incompetent and controlled by the religious right. Also, Social Security privatization is hugely unpopular with the American public, especially in the Republican rural western states, and if the Dems can find good candidates, they will hammer the GOP with Social Security. The Dems are likely to pick up seats in Montana, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and, I'll say Arizona too. See above about sixth year elections.

Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Reason? She is (hopefully) smart enough to realize she is hated vehemently, and will not run, choosing instead to set herself in history with a long and distinguished career as a Senator. If she runs she will be attacked from the get go because she is the obvious front-runner. Also, I'm an optimist and don't think she can win the general election.

The 2008 Republican nominee will be Colorado governor Bill Owens. Reasons? Since Cheney will not run, the race is wide open. An easier question is who, of the oft-mentioned hopefuls, will it not be. I would say that Bill Frist would get it, but his bungling of the judicial nominees - see last week - will make the religious right lose faith in him. He also has the charisma of a nicely dressed stick. With respect to our commencement speaker, Rudy Giuliani, gay rights and abortion mean he will not get the nomination. John McCain is not as young as he was, and isn't like by the religious right. Mitt Romney is from the wrong state, he will not get it. So why not Bill Owens?

In 2012, 2016 or 2020, either Obama/ Spitzer or Spitzer/ Obama will win the White House and bring a golden age of Democratic rule. Reason? These guys are super charismatic, ambitious and the media so far loves them. Also, I'm an optimist.

Readings: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, The New Republic, Salon.com, The National Review, The Weekly Standard, dailykos.com, talkingpointsmemo.com, thewashingtonnote.com, andrewsullivan.com, democracyarsenal.org.