Liberal Voice Has Arafat's Time Expired?

Author: May Boeve

The Israeli Cabinet's intention to remove Yasser Arafat, announced last Tuesday, is a marked departure from the sort of news we are used to from the Middle Eastern desk. After seemingly endless blurbs about cease-fires and suicide bombings, this new decision begs the question of timing. When was the last straw drawn that caused this shift in policy? If so, the international community's reaction (including the United States, which has a penchant for removing "disagreeable" heads of state) should have sent Ariel Sharon a message that this is not the best course of action.

The "Roadmap for Peace" has been the latest in unsuccessful attempts at forging peace in the region. Once it made its way out of daily news, there was a resurgence of Palestinian-led suicide bombings. Then came the announcement declaring Arafat "an obstacle to peace whom [Israel] attempts to remove" (The Guardian, 9/13/03).

Perhaps it can be assumed that the Israeli cabinet really has had enough, and that short of entering into new peace talks (unlikely, considering Sharon's lack of cooperation during the last round), the best plan they could come up with was to bump off Arafat. Or exile him-that was the official plan before more inside information was leaked to the press.

This is certainly a new tactic in the Middle East "peace process," although not for Israel's big brother on the block. Maybe Sharon took a page from the chapter in our book entitled, "Mr. X is pretty uncooperative with our aims. We better get him out." Considering the relative success of that particular U.S. foreign policy, it is no wonder from where the idea was derived.

But in this case, the state initiating the removal does not have sufficient force to back up that action. More importantly, the proposed removal of Arafat will only exacerbate the violence, undoubtedly surpassing the horrors already commonplace.

There have already been threats of violence issued by the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, a faction of Arafat's Fatah movement, in response to the Israeli decision. And these are official threats. How often are suicide bombings made official before they occur? Rarely.

Also, if Arafat is merely exiled and not killed, few Palestinians will seek to fill his shoes, leaving a vacancy at the helm while Israel attempts to make sweeping changes. And even though support of Arafat does not extend throughout the entire "Palestinian territory" (whatever that means), he is regarded as a symbol of the Palestinian struggle. If he is killed, I can think of few more stimulating reasons for the Palestinians to ratchet up their fight.

This would be just the sort of impetus to throw sympathy more firmly toward the Palestinians, who have recently been gaining more international support but not quite enough to make changes happen. Along the same lines, if public sentiment shifts definitively away from the Israelis as a result of an attempt on Arafat's life, violence on the part of Israelis may increase as well.

As far as the international community is concerned, this newest move by Israel is thought to be "unwise" (according to United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan). Censure from the United States is particularly strong, but Israeli cabinet members are asserting their status as a sovereign state, independent of U.S. orders. That attitude, where this affair is concerned, could come back and haunt them.

However, the United States certainly lacks credibility when advising another nation what to do about a troublesome foreign head of state. If we did not show such historical precedence for initiating removal of heads of state, maybe we could try to dissuade the Israeli cabinet from this course of action. I am inclined to think it is too late.

This rashness on the part of the Israeli cabinet is predated by historical struggles so long and divisive that they can certainly explain why this new plan has come about.

However, not even this history can explain why a new juncture has been reached where no more peace accords can be striven for before Arafat is removed. What final line has been crossed? The last resurgence of suicide bombings may well have broken the camel's back. But this course of action will inevitably fuel the conflict and leave the Israelis in a far worse place than they are now. Playing a game perfected by the United States without its support may prove quite detrimental, and it could take years for the Israelis and Palestinians to get to the place where they could even enter into peace talks, let alone resolve them.