Middle Ground

Author: Fahim Ahmed

As the nation enters election week, political analysts remain sharply divided over the future of control of the United States Senate and the House of Representatives. With Democrats holding onto its razor-thin majority in the Senate, and Republicans maintaining their slim control over the House, the upcoming elections could well be the deciding factor on the question of balance of power between Congress and the White House. Nevertheless, given the political and economic outlook in both the domestic and global spheres, and the recent polls on congressional seats up for grabs, it is unlikely that we will see a significant shift in the status quo. Ergo, the Republican Party remains poised to retain control of the House, and the Democratic Party may well lead the Senate for another two years.
With 34 out of the 100 senatorial seats up for reelection on Nov. 5, only six, however, appear to be extremely competitive. Of these, the Democrats are the incumbents in Minnesota, Missouri and South Dakota, while the remaining three are held by Republican incumbents in Arkansas, Colorado and New Hampshire. Among the open seats, Democratic candidates have made little progress in North and South Carolina, being vacated by Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms respectively. Republican contestants in Montana and Louisiana have also lagged behind their Democratic opponents. Former Senator Frank Lautenberg, replacement candidate for Robert Toricelli, has also maintained his slim lead over his Republican challenger in New Jersey. In Texas, Attorney General John Cornyn has also led the polls over his Democratic opponent. Thus, the six seats may emerge as the ultimate decider in the battle over the Senate.
The tragic death of the incumbent Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, and the possible replacement of former Vice President Walter Mondale as the Democratic candidate is, likely to emerge as a swing factor in the state's keenly contested Senate race. While Mondale has not run a political race in almost 18 years, his stature as a senior statesman and as a standard-bearer of Sen. Wellstone's legacy of liberal politics is likely to carry him through in the race. In Missouri, Jean Carnahan, wife of former Sen. Mel Carnahan, faces similar challenges as she defends the seat she had been appointed to, upon the death of her husband. And New Hampshire, the first state to have declared independence from England, and the first state to commence primaries during presidential elections, may indeed become the first state to send an incumbent female governor into the senate. Governor Jeanne Shaheen has thus far performed strongly against John Sununu in the polls in the contest for the seat vacated by Robert Smith. Thus, it appears that the Democratic Party will be successful in defending, but perhaps not extending, its wafer-thin majority in the Senate.
However, the contest for the House of Representatives is an entirely different story for the Democrats. The party will need to win six seats from the GOP to wrest control of the House, for the first time since Newt Gingrich staked a Republican majority in 1994. However, only about a couple of dozen House seats appear to be closely contested. Democrats will need to win two-thirds of those seats to gain majority in the House, a fact further constrained by the GOP's relative success in fundraising.
Economic and political outlook for the United States continues to be just as divisive as the House and the Senate themselves. Recent surveys have identified the stuttering pace of the economy, and threats of terrorism and an impending war on Iraq as the leading issues in the upcoming elections. Whereas President Bush still enjoys strong approval ratings on his leadership in the war on terrorism, his record is blemished by the concomitant poor performance of the United States economy. Thus, the nation looks just as divided as it was the last time it went into elections.