Beyond the Bubble

Tension continues to rise on the Korean peninsula following a series of attacks by the North Korean military against their South Korean neighbors. Both strikes have been strongly condemned by the South Korean government, state leaders and the United Nations. Analysts claim that there are very few options for diplomatic maneuvers and that China must take a leadership role in halting the escalation of tension in the peninsula.
The first of the two North Korean military strikes occurred on Nov. 23. Two marines and two South Korean civilians were killed when the North attacked an island in the Yellow Sea. The second of the two attacks occurred three days later. North Korean officials again launched another round of artillery fire at the same island in South Korea. While this time no one was injured, the Associated Press noted that the second round of artillery fire was especially threatening as it came during a tour of the island by the U.S. Military Commander to South Korea, General Walter Sharp.
These actions have reverberated around the world. On the day of the second round of attacks, Bloomberg reported the decline of the value of gold: “Military and political tensions on the Korean peninsula drove the dollar to a two-month high, eroding demand for the metal.”
Many major international players have called on the Chinese, North Korea’s greatest trading partner, to sanction the nation, limiting its capacity to conduct such hostile actions in the future. The Chinese, however, have responded only by calling for six-party talks between the Chinese, Japanese, America, Russian and North and South Korean governments. While laudable, facilitating such talks has been seen by many as nothing more than a public relations move, designed to take the pressure both off of the North Korean and Chinese governments. The NY Times reported remarks by White House press secretary Robert Gibbs: “The United States and a host of others … are not interested in stabilizing the region through a series of P.R. activities.”
Gibbs also noted that the North Korean government would need to agree to both end such hostile behavior, and also “come to the table with a seriousness of purpose on the denuclearization issue” in order for the American government to resume negotiations.
The nuclearization of North Korea has been a main point of interest for diplomatic officials in recent months. While analysts remain confident that the military does not possess the capacity to build nuclear missiles, the authoritarian state has continued to take steps towards such an endeavor. Such actions are seen as a threat to the South Korean government and global stability at large. The UN Security Council (UNSC) has met in recent days to discuss the escalating tensions surrounding the rogue state. As of yet, however, the UNSC has not created a new plan for dealing with the state, but rather has “called for (the) tighter enforcement of sanctions against North Korea.”
With so many differing factors, and such a wide range of interests present in this conflict, a simple resolution seems impossible. What seems evident is that in order to avoid a military engagement all parties must tread cautiously. As the North Korean government undergoes the regime change that leader Kim Jong Il has been planning it will be particularly unstable. An escalation of tension could result in disastrous global consequences. State leaders must tread cautiously, balancing their condemnation for the North Korean state with their levelheaded recognition of the fragility of the situation.